Sarbanes at 27%? Not buying it

Skewed, to say the least, is the poll in today’s Sun about Michael Sarbanes’ 27% lead. That’s my opinion. I ain’t buying the mainstream hogwash. For me, just like Bundley is finding it virtually impossible to circumvent the process – you know, start out as a Council person – so too has Sarbanes attempted to do the same. Name recognition alone (just look at how Frank Conaway is doing in the same paper’s poll yesterday) does not cut it. Further, the question for me is whether or not Sarbanes gets a free ride because of who his daddy is. This city needs real leadership that at least has the basic experience. Dixon, say what you want, did pay her dues. An old fashioned type of guy, I have always had to work hard to move up. And that means doing your classwork and your homework. NW Baltimore voters won’t, I suggest, go for a free pass. So, skewed is the word for today. BMORENEWS will soon run a similar poll and see what subscribers feel – whether they agree or not with the Sun. 

PS – Today at 2 pm, Stephanie Rawlings Blake gets endorsed by the Governor.

The Council president’s race, as we predicted weeks ago, is the race to watch. Not the mayor’s.

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One Response to “Sarbanes at 27%? Not buying it”

  1. etarredrum Says:

    I’m not sure I understand your argument. Was there a problem with the methodology of the poll?

    Also, if you limit the poll to subscribers then it will suffer from serious selection bias. It won’t be a good predictor of your election results unless the BMOREnews subscriber population represents the age, class and race of the voting population. Very few people register. Even fewer vote. Not a surprise that in our day to day we hear one thing about the council race and in polls of likely voters we hear something different.

    For example, how many subscribers over 60 do you have? I guarantee they are a smaller share of subsribers than voters. The reverse is true of 20 year olds. While you are polling maybe ask the readership:
    1) are you registered to vote?
    2) did you vote in the 2006 primary election?
    3) did you vote in the 2006 general election?

    If the answer to any of the questions is no, you’re dealing with an unlikely voter. If you have to explain the difference between the primary and general after asking the question, you’re dealing with a very unlikely voter – someone whose opinion in the BMOREnews poll doesn’t really shed any light on the electoral reality.

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